How does a faulty Forex dealer cheat your money?
Forex market is a non-centralized market. There is no common market place for Forex traders and there is no so-call ‘standard’ in foreign currency exchange price. Different Forex dealers offer very different deals to their customers.
As an individual FX trader, you depends solely on the dealer to make a transaction in your trades, thus picking up the right dealer is extremely crucial in your risk.
You may wonder how does a faulty dealer can cheat on your money as all investment call have to go thru your decisions.
Well, here's a typical example:
Often a bad dealer is not totally scams.
They are smart persons that trick money from traders that are not well-aware. These dealers, often known as retail market makers, will often encourage their clients to trade on margin and set stop loss orders, which allow the market makers to close out trades almost at will during busy markets at prices they have set. If the market maker does not offset the trader's position, the loss generated when a stop loss is triggered becomes the market maker's gain.
Trade prices are easily skewed one way or the other depending on the retail trader's position, which is known by the market maker.
Traders can be encouraged to take risky positions just before major economic announcements. If all else fails, the market maker can quote extreme prices (known as spiking) to trigger stop loss orders while the client is at work or asleep.
The vast majority of retail FX traders are not profitable. For those losing retail speculators, much of the funds they had on deposit will be, in some form or another, transferred to the market maker.
Understanding the risks in Forex trading
Forex: To trade, or not to trade? Many are reluctant to involve in Forex trading because of its ‘risks’. Generally speaking, there are risks everywhere in our life: Factories may malfunction, customer may not walk-in if you open a shop, stock market may crush, and if you are employed you may get fired during company downsizing. There are risks everywhere! The important issue here is how you learn and maintain your risk. So if you are considering participating in Forex market, you should learn managing the risk involved, instead of being terrified.
Picking up the right Forex dealer
One of the best methods to avoid unnecessary risks is avoid fraud dealer.
Forex is a special trading business with no centralized market. Thus, unlike regulated futures exchanges, there is no central market place for Forex buyers or sellers therefore the price offered by different Forex dealers may vary a lot. When you are trading in Forex market, you are totally relying on the dealer’s integrity for a fair deal.
Further more, you need to select a right Forex dealer to avoid scams. There may be Forex dealers that are not regulated legally and there maybe investment scams, especially on the Internet. Be very careful on who you are dealing with in Forex and always check cautiously on the investment offer.
Stop loss order
The Forex market could move against you. No one can predict with certainty which way exchange rates will go, and the Forex market is volatile. Fluctuations in the foreign exchange rate between the time you place the trade and the time you attempt to liquidate it will affect the price of your Forex contract and the potential profit and losses relating to it. To avoid losing all of your investment capital, you should have a pre-arrangement on your risk profile. A solid risk profile will limit the Forex dealer not to overtake risk that you cannot handle. For example, if you have 100,000 to invest, you can say that you are willing to risk 10,000 of that capital with the potential to gain another 100,000. This can be easily implemented by a fund manager, so your losses can be limited to 10% or 5% of invested capital.
Avoid too high margin trade
Another way to manage your risks well in Forex market is to trade without overleveraged. Forex dealers want you to trade with high leverage values as this means more spread income for them. Also, trading in high leverage may increase your profit or your losing. There are high possibilities that one lose money more than he or she can afford in margin trading.
Forex can be extraordinarily beneficial to a variety of people. It gives huge leverage rates, it gives incompatible liquidity to your money, it gives convenience to trade on the Internet, and it can definitely give you a lot of money if you trade smartly. Like any other trading business, if you are new to it, best advice you can get is to learn and practice more before you test your ‘wings’. Seminars, eBooks, Internet, papers, video courses – all these are handy to get yourself ready. You can also try out your skill on the demo account provided free. After all, Forex trades 24hours a day and there is always money to make in the market, so why not be patience until you are fully ready for it?
Diversification in Forex trading
Diversification is another way to manage risks in Forex market. Trading one currency pair will generate few entry signals. If you wish to lower your risk in Forex market, it would be better to diversify your trades between several currencies.
Try simultaneously trade on different pair of currency. Say you have capital of $1,000, instead of putting all your money to long EUR/USD, you can split the money half to long EUR/USD and GBD/USD ($500 each) as these two currencies are highly correlated and tends to move in the same directions.
Conclusion
Needless to say, knowledge is another key of handling your risks well. Before you get into Forex market, the best thing you should do is educate yourself. What drives currency price movement? How to read analysis data? How to read chart indicators? Learn detail about how currency price move and how to trade foreign currency exchange in order to avoid unnecessary risks.
You come to this article probably because of you are new to FOREX and were looking for some readings on the Internet. To be frank, Forex can be very profitable but the risk lie beneath is equally great. But what else in life does not involve risk? You can be fired from your job, factory may malfunctions, stock market may collapse, your boss may runaway with your wages, and hey! These are all risk. Learning in risk management is the key to handle your life.
Profitable Forex Trading System Revealed
The technique I will describe below is a great opportunity to jump in a trade. The set of rules that I describe can be used as a Forex system. I have heard many names for this technique with the most successful one called the "Pinball Trade".
It is the first system I learned and applied successfully during my long trip in Forex research. Experiment with it and see the results on your own. For now let's see how this system is applied.
When you recognize an uptrend or a downtrend in Forex charts try to create the channel that includes this trend. When the price hits the one channel line and returns to the other channel line try to see if this line coincides with a Fibonacci retracement level.
The price does not necessarily have to hit both the channel lines but the price swing has to be restricted from the channel lines.
This trade setup will give you a high opportunity that the price will reverse (76% of the time according to long term research). Take a good care to design correctly the channel lines and the Fibonacci retracement levels.
If you do not know how to design channel lines see Easy Trade Forex video tutorials in trendline analysis chapter.
Forex Technical Trading: Examples
Trade in the direction of the likely reversal. Stop loss orders should be set a little below or above the channel line and Fibonacci retracement level.
Look at the images below as real market trading examples of this system.
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More examples:
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It is very common for price in Forex to reverse when it has more than one reason to do so. In pinball trade the price reverses because of the channel line with added Fibonacci retracement level. Take good care to design correctly the parallel channel lines. The rest are easy.
Experiment with this technique in Forex charts. At first try to find pinball trades in previous Forex movements. Practice a lot. After getting accustomed to this trade setup you should be ready to apply in your trading. At first recognize a new trend evolving.
Draw the channel lines and take the opportunity to use this trade system. You wont be disappointed!
After all these years of trading and research I have learned and used many trading systems. Now I have found that Fibonacci Patterns is the most profitable Forex trading technique for me.
Creating Profitable Forex Trading Systems in Five Easy Steps
There is an old saying that is loosely translated to 'if I don’t help myself, who will?’ now while this isnt very elloquent, it does convey what i want to tell you.
No entrepreneurship, no success, no money making scheme, is done if you don’t have a hand in it. So don’t rely on what other people can do for you, just get it done for yourself.
Now while this rule applies to everything, it’s specifically useful regarding the forex market (foreign exchange). The forex is the biggest, most liquid market on the planet. Basically it trades currencies and is estimated that over 2 trillion dollars pass hands each day. Just to give you perspective, the new your stock exchange (also a huge endeavor), 'only' processes about 50 billion dollars a day. Get the picture?
I bet I can guess your thoughts right about now. Well, maybe not the actual thought so much as the sentiment. You want some. 2 trillion is too much to be ignored and any person with a sturdy head on their shoulders would want a piece of the action. But in order to do that, you need to know at least the minimum for forex trading.
We understand that you can’t know or operate everything; you will need porters, or advisers or just plain friends to call when you’re in a bind, but don’t you want to be the one to make the call about whets best for you? The only way you can do that is if you learn, so make sure you understand whets going on before you take even a step into the world of forex trading.
How do you start trading Forex?
Now you need to find a forex system that will help you along with your trading. You need to find the right system for you, so don’t ever tire of looking. You can find trading systems all over the market (the internet really) and they could and will help you make hundreds, if not thousands of times over any dime you pay up front.
You might think it’s difficult to get your trading system personalized or up and running in general, even if it’s standard. You might even find it hard to make a choice, but all it ever comes down to is knowledge, and that is what we are here for.
You can find the trading system for you if you just take into account 5 different pointers (that’s it, five!!) but before we get there, there are three things you have to know. So lets start there, and then we can move on to the pointers.
The first things you have to know is don’t fall into the gadget trap.
Just because it’s shiny doesn’t mean you need it. It’s actually, almost on the contrary. The simpler the system the better it will probably be for your forex needs, so stay away from the forex trading/cappuccino making/ironing/phone/camera combo. Stick to the basics and you will be fine. Another thing that should be obvious to you is that you, as your trading system, should be in the business of cutting losses and running with any profit possible.
You need a system that can identify possible profits and (ideally) instantly cut losses. This could save you a great deal of money, so don’t turn on your computer before you’re convinced that this is what your system does. The last of the three things you should know is that you need a system that can recognize long term trends. if your computer is only analyzing days when deciding to sell or buy, then you will never get more then pennies to your dollar, and that just isn’t enough when there are two trillion to be had.
Now lets get to the five must knows when it comes to getting started with the forex market. First of all, your trading system should be simple (for conviction read above). You need an extensive investment management system, but only some essential general rules. Anything more will only confuse your computer and will long term hurt your profit potential.
Secondly, don’t be happy with short term trends; go for the longer weekly based trends so that your profits will really be impressive. If you analyze what happens to the market on daily/hourly charts then it can really understand the market, and only then will you be happy you left your day job.
The third is that the best way to trade in foreign currencies is the breakout method, so ask around, find from peers and experts, and learn all about this method before you get started.
The forth thing that I want to enlighten you with today is that you need to develop a timing tool for your market entrances and exits. Watch for breaks in the market and have them sketched on your chart so that you can see what is going on in the market.
And my last parting words of wisdom? The fifth is that you should have time management become an important part of your chosen system. you need your time to yield the best results, because two trillion isn’t when you want it, its once a day, and days come and go as they please, not at your request.
So get started, there is no doubt in my mind that if you stick to what you have read here then you will be that much closer to becoming a millionaire.
How Not To Exit A Forex Trade
Too many times I hear about new traders opening a trade using the 5-minute chart (not my favorite approach) and when the market moves against them, they move to the 15-minute chart to justify staying in a little longer, hoping that the market will turn around.
Then if the market continues to move against them, they move out to the hourly chart to look for a reason to stay in the trade. As the market continues to move against them, they shift to the daily chart to hope to find a reason to stay in the trade. The next step is to get a margin call because they have no funds left to maintain their position.
Of course, the main issue here is that they were looking for a way to stay in a losing trade rather than closing it out at a small loss. Taking a loss does not mean that you do not know what you are doing. Too many new traders think that losing a trade means that they are losers or that they aren't smart enough to trade. Nothing could be further from the truth though.
Professional traders understand that if they trade, they will have losing trades. That is really the only guarantee in the field of speculation. How you handle those losing trades has as much to do with your success as a trader as any other factor. You don't have to like losing, but you must accept the fact that all trades cannot be winning trades. You have to keep those losing trades small enough to be able to make up for them with your winning trades.
Switching time frames to justify staying in a trade is not how you keep your losses small. Identify your exit point before you get into the trade and stick to it. Judge yourself from month to month rather than on every pip move in the market. Be consistent in your approach and stay in one time frame from the beginning of the trade to the end of the trade.
The Economic Situation Report and the Forex Market
The Forex market, like most investment markets, is often glued to economic reports that are published on a monthly or even quarterly basis.
Some of the more common economic reports or indicators that can influence and shape trade decisions in an investment market are the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Housing Price Index (HPI), and the Employment Situation Report. The Employment Situation Report is one of the most popular indicators around, where changes in the employment rate and hourly wage rates can influence overall currency rates.
What exactly is the Employment Situation Report?
The Employment Situation Report, also commonly called the Labor Report, is an economic indicator that basically reports on the number of people out of work in the country, as well as on general wage rates, etc. The first part of the Employment Situation Report is called the household survey, which surveys approximately 60,000 households throughout the country about those out of work. From that number, the general unemployment rate is calculated. In other words, the household survey is a very powerful survey that helps determine the country’s overall unemployment rate.
The household survey is basically a lagging indicator, which means that any changes that occur in the number of people out of work usually happen after changes in an economy. If the economy is strong, the number of people out of work will generally soon decrease (positive effect on the currency rate), while if the economy slows down, the effect on the number of unemployed people might not be felt until a few months later (negative effect on currency rate).
The household survey is also countercyclic in nature, which means that the overall unemployment rate moves in the opposite direction of the overall economic trends. If the economy is in a growth mode, that means that the unemployment rate will decrease, while if the economy is weakening, then the unemployment figure will increase.
The establishment survey, which is the second part of the Economic Situation Report, measures hours worked and overall hourly earnings throughout the country. It does this by surveying about 400,000 businesses nationwide. It is considered a coincident economic indicator, as it changes when the economy changes. If the number of hours worked and the overall wage increases, then the economy is moving in the same direction at the same time.
Interview avec 3G Forex
Pouvez-vous nous parler un petit peu de vous et de votre position au sein de 3G Forex ?
Mon nom est Lee Wilson; Je suis à la tête du Développement Commercial à 3G Forex . J’ai reçu une éducation centrée sur les affaires et la finance et j'ai travaillé dans le domaine du Développement Commercial sur Internet ces 8 dernières années. Je ne veux m’occuper que d’un produit dans lequel je crois fermement et, après avoir passé la plupart de ma carrière à travailler avec plusieurs distributeurs en ligne, j'ai opéré le changement vers le Forex car je crois qu'il offre la possibilité d’un profit énorme pour les courtiers en ligne AINSI QUE pour leurs clients. Ce n'est pas une coïncidence si le commerce FX a pris un tel essor!
Quel public ciblez-vous?
3G Forex est équipé pour servir et aider aussi bien les novices que les opérateurs expérimentés . Parce que nous fournissons un site Web à l’interface multilingue ainsi qu’une équippe de soutien personnel polyglotte, il nous est possible de travailler avec une grande base de clients dans le monde entier. Tous les types de détaillants peuvent bénéficier des services et ressources fournis par 3G Forex.
Pourquoi un opérateur devrait-il choisir 3G Forex ?
À 3G Forex les besoins de nos clients sont notre première priorité. Nous reconnaissons l'importance de présenter le marché du Forex à nos clients d’une manière simple et conviviale . Pour pousser notre philosophie jusqu'au bout, nous fournissons aux opérateurs une ‘banque’ de ressources complète ainsi que des stratégies d’apprentissage, combinées à une aide et un soutien de qualité supérieure. Il est également bon de signaler que 3G Forex ne prélève ni commissions ni frais. Par conséquent, il y va dans notre intérêt comme dans le vôtre que vous réussissiez et que établissiez avec nous un rapport continu et fructueux.
Pouvez nous dire un mot sur votre plateforme d’échanges?
Notre plateforme d’échanges ‘Opérateur 3G’ a été conçue pour apporter à nos clients tous les outils requis pour un commerce prospère, et ceci, tout en restant simple et facile à utiliser. Le logiciel adaptable de 3G Forex est le dernier cri dans l'industrie, fournissant aux opérateurs une plateforme d’échanges efficace et pouvant être personnalisée. Selon vos besoins spécifiques, nous offrons deux plateformes différentes. Les clients peuvent choisir entre notre ‘Opérateur 3G’ téléchargeable et basée sur Windows et notre ‘Opérateur 3G Java’, qui peut opérer depuis plusieurs navigateurs Web sans qu’il ne soit besoin de téléchargement ou d’installation. Les deux plateformes contiennent tout les outils professionnels standard que l’on peut s’attendre à trouver sur une place de marché FX en ligne.
Quel conseil donneriez-vous à quelqu'un qui vient juste de se lancer dans les transactions de Forex?
Nous recommandons que vous valorisiez tout d’abord votre expérience en vous entraînant sur notre compte de démonstration. Nous offrons un compte d’entraînement de100k $ qui a été conçu pour vous aider à réviser vos compétences et à obtenir le goût et la maîtrise des transactions de Forex.
Le compte d'entraînement fonctionne aussi en temps réel et avec des conditions de commerce réelles. La seule différence est que vous n'utilisez pas de l’argent réel! Afin de vous informer et de vous instruire au maximum, nous recommandons aussi que vous profitiez de nos vastes ressources et de notre matériel d’apprentissage. Plus vous vous équipez des outils nécessaires et d’une information financière à jour, et plus vos chances de devenir un prospère opérateur en Forex seront élevées!
Quels sont les avantages que 3G Forex offre à ses clients?
Tous les opérateurs qui ouvrent un compte avec 3G Forex ont droit à une prime de dépôt. Selon le type de compte ouvert, les nouveaux opérateurs recevront une prime parfaisant leur dépôt original. Cette promotion spéciale varie selon la taille du dépôt. Après avoir ouvert un compte avec 3G Forex, les opérateurs reçoivent accès à notre salle de transactions. Si vous êtes un client VIP, vous avez accès à votre propre agent de change personnel!
Understanding the risks in Forex trading
Forex: To trade, or not to trade? Many are reluctant to involve in Forex trading because of its ‘risks’. Generally speaking, there are risks everywhere in our life: Factories may malfunction, customer may not walk-in if you open a shop, stock market may crush, and if you are employed you may get fired during company downsizing. There are risks everywhere! The important issue here is how you learn and maintain your risk. So if you are considering participating in Forex market, you should learn managing the risk involved, instead of being terrified.
Picking up the right Forex dealer
One of the best methods to avoid unnecessary risks is avoid fraud dealer.
Forex is a special trading business with no centralized market. Thus, unlike regulated futures exchanges, there is no central market place for Forex buyers or sellers therefore the price offered by different Forex dealers may vary a lot. When you are trading in Forex market, you are totally relying on the dealer’s integrity for a fair deal.
Further more, you need to select a right Forex dealer to avoid scams. There may be Forex dealers that are not regulated legally and there maybe investment scams, especially on the Internet. Be very careful on who you are dealing with in Forex and always check cautiously on the investment offer.
Stop loss order
The Forex market could move against you. No one can predict with certainty which way exchange rates will go, and the Forex market is volatile. Fluctuations in the foreign exchange rate between the time you place the trade and the time you attempt to liquidate it will affect the price of your Forex contract and the potential profit and losses relating to it. To avoid losing all of your investment capital, you should have a pre-arrangement on your risk profile. A solid risk profile will limit the Forex dealer not to overtake risk that you cannot handle. For example, if you have 100,000 to invest, you can say that you are willing to risk 10,000 of that capital with the potential to gain another 100,000. This can be easily implemented by a fund manager, so your losses can be limited to 10% or 5% of invested capital.
Avoid too high margin trade
Another way to manage your risks well in Forex market is to trade without overleveraged. Forex dealers want you to trade with high leverage values as this means more spread income for them. Also, trading in high leverage may increase your profit or your losing. There are high possibilities that one lose money more than he or she can afford in margin trading.
Forex can be extraordinarily beneficial to a variety of people. It gives huge leverage rates, it gives incompatible liquidity to your money, it gives convenience to trade on the Internet, and it can definitely give you a lot of money if you trade smartly. Like any other trading business, if you are new to it, best advice you can get is to learn and practice more before you test your ‘wings’. Seminars, eBooks, Internet, papers, video courses – all these are handy to get yourself ready. You can also try out your skill on the demo account provided free. After all, Forex trades 24hours a day and there is always money to make in the market, so why not be patience until you are fully ready for it?
Diversification in Forex trading
Diversification is another way to manage risks in Forex market. Trading one currency pair will generate few entry signals. If you wish to lower your risk in Forex market, it would be better to diversify your trades between several currencies.
Try simultaneously trade on different pair of currency. Say you have capital of $1,000, instead of putting all your money to long EUR/USD, you can split the money half to long EUR/USD and GBD/USD ($500 each) as these two currencies are highly correlated and tends to move in the same directions.
Conclusion
Needless to say, knowledge is another key of handling your risks well. Before you get into Forex market, the best thing you should do is educate yourself. What drives currency price movement? How to read analysis data? How to read chart indicators? Learn detail about how currency price move and how to trade foreign currency exchange in order to avoid unnecessary risks.
You come to this article probably because of you are new to FOREX and were looking for some readings on the Internet. To be frank, Forex can be very profitable but the risk lie beneath is equally great. But what else in life does not involve risk? You can be fired from your job, factory may malfunctions, stock market may collapse, your boss may runaway with your wages, and hey! These are all risk. Learning in risk management is the key to handle your life.
Trade smartly, and gain the maximum out of Forex – good luck!
How currency exchange (FOREX) market works?
I bet you are well aware of the existent of Forex trading nowadays. Forex market exists wherever one currency is traded for another. Forex, or Foreign Exchange Market, is generally works as an international currency exchange market. Investors and speculators are allowed to trade currencies from all around the world thru Forex trading.
Forex is a very unique type of trading where traders are buying and selling 'money' in the same time. The trades are done in pairs, such as Euro/JPY, USD/CHF, and CAD/USD. It is the world largest trading market where an average of $1.9 trillion trades is done on a daily basis. The turnover rates in FOREX are nearly 30 times larger than the total volume of equity trades in United States.
Despite its large volume of trades done daily, Forex is relative new to the publics nonetheless. It is only made available to publics in year 1998 where big sized inter-bank units are sliced into smaller pieces and offered to individual traders like you and me. Before that, Forex is a game only for banks, multi national cooperation, and big currency dealers. Only those with large business size and strong financial background were permitted to trade foreign currencies.
Facts about Forex market
As a matter of fact, large international banks are still the major traders in currency exchange market. Deutsche Bank is one of the top currency traders; along with other major banks like UBS, Citi Group, HSBC, Barclays, J. P. Morgan Chase, Coldman Sachs, ABN Amro, Morgan Stanley, and Merril Lynch; these banks are said to be responsible for more than 70% trades in currency market.
When you are trading Forex with currency dealer, the Forex quotes might look a bit different from our previous example. Often, a two-sided quote, consisting of 'bid' and 'ask' price, is listed when dealing with currency brokers. For example, EUR/USD 1.2385/1.2390: 1.2385 is known as the 'bid' price while 1.2390 is commonly known as the 'ask' or 'buy' price. The 'bid' is the price at which you can sell the base currency; while the 'ask' is the price at which you can buy the base currency. As you study the numbers, you might realize that the two-sided currency price is quoted against you.
Traders are forced to buy the currency in a higher price than the selling one. This is done because FOREX trades are done without any commission chargers. Thru quoting currency 'bid & ask' price differently in this way, the currency brokers are manage to make profit without charging their client commission fees directly. Learn more on Forex quotes.
Fundamental analysis and Technical analysis in Forex
Fundamental Analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. As in Forex trading, government policies, bank policies, natural disasters, and speculators mood are some of the fundamentals considered to predict the currency market trends. Fundamental FOREX traders will review a country economy's situation base on these fundamental elements and respond accordingly. To gain max, fundamentalists often apply precise method to convert study's results into accurate entry/exit price indicator.
Technical Analysis, on the other hand, is a completely different story. Instead of reviewing on the fundamental issues, traders from the technical side define market movement according to data purely generated from the market. The term 'Technical' is applied in all trading fields, from commodity stocks exchange to option trading, from Forex to futures.
Generally, the purpose of technical analysis is to find potential price reversal or pivotal points. These points basically refer the change of market trends, which then indicates when to enter or exit from the market. It is important to know that as with any other techniques in your trading system, these technical analysis indicators could be used alone or with other indicators. Traders are always recommended to learn more different technical methods to analyze different market data because none of these techniques are 100% accurate and 100% foolproof. Taking example of the 'price' data and the 'time' data, which are widely used by FOREX trader.
There are some techniques consider solely on the 'price' factor, while some solely rely on the 'time' factor. The fact is if you know both technical methods, you can take both price and time into consideration during estimating market future trends. This will of course then reduce the risks of losing money in Forex market. Also, it would be wise if traders combine both technical and fundamental techniques when trading Forex, as a country currency value depends a lot on fundamental variables such as war, change of national leaders, terrorism attacks, as well as natural disasters.
Conclusion
Without a doubt, Forex is gaining its popularity fast against other kind of trading. No limited market access, no liquidity issues-after market hours, zero commission fees, low capital requirements with high leverage rates, and no restrictions on short selling -- Forex can be very beneficial to a variety of people. Like any other trading business, if you are new to it, best advice you can get is to learn and practice more before you test your 'wings'. Seminars, eBooks, Internet, papers, video courses - all these are helpful to raise your confidence level before you trade with your real hard-earn dollars.
Forex Beginners 'Must-Do'
It is believe that more than 50% of Forex traders are losing money long term in the foreign currency exchange market. Yet, there are still a lot of Forex traders jump in to the market, trade blindly and lost their money.
Trade after trade, its surprising to see that 'normally-losing' traders keep betting (not investing!) their money into Forex market without reviewing their trading strategy. No matter you are the experienced or the beginners, there are certain 'must-do' when trading Forex to manage the risk wisely and to increase your possibilities in making profits.
'Must-Do 1': Invest in your brain first
If you are serious about investing in Forex market, building up your trading skills and knowledge is the very first step that you must take. Seminars, workshops, video tutorials, online learning, or even books are handful to help us learn from the professional.
Learn to implement technical charting into your trades; learn using indicators to determine the right time to enter/exit the market; brush up your experience by trading with a demo account… all these are effective to ensure your smooth starts and it will definitely reduce your chances of losing money.
Recommended Forex trading course
'Must-Do 2': Getting the right trading system
It is wise to research very well and consider all the various brokers' system available to you before making your choice. By applying certain level of computer automations (such like charting and doing auto trades), trading; a well-designed trading system will reduce your work dramatically. This in turns give you more time to focus on studying the market and plotting your strategy. Also, using auto-trading system will avoid you from doing emotional-trades.
Recommended Forex trading tool
'Must-Do 3': Have a trading plan
As the old says: “Fail to plan is plan to fail”. Trading is like sailing boat middle in the sea; you will not be going anywhere without compass and navigator.
What is the detail objective of the trades? How much profit to expect from the trade? When to get into the market? How much to invest? What price to exit the market? If things do not work out, when do execute the stop loss order? How high is the affordable risk? A good trading plan should at least answers the above questions. Further more, if your trading plan fails, review and modify your trading plan.
Find out your mistakes and learn from them.
'Must-Do 4': Money management
Money management is controlling your risk through the use of protective stops, while balancing your potential for profit against your potential for loss. For example, good money management means you know your profit objective and the odds of being right or wrong, and controlling your risk with protective stops. You are better off with a trade where you might lose $1000 if you are wrong and make $500 if you are right, that would work eight times out of ten, than to take a trade where you would make $1000 if you are right and lose only $500 if you are wrong, but works only one time out of three.
If you are investing using your savings, it's even more important that you manage your money in your trading and in your personal expenses. Chances are high that you miss a good investing chance because of you are lack of capital.
'Must-Do 5': Discipline trading
Trading Forex with discipline is important. Success in Forex trading could not be achieved by plotting out the best trading plan. It is also depends on implementing the trading plan. Be discipline, trade according to your plan and never trade with your emotion no matter you are losing money or winning. Greed will stop you from taking profit at predetermined level; while fear will stop you from making the nice kill in the market.
South Africa Hikes Rates, but Interest Rate Differential is Preserved
Yesterday, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) lowered its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 8.5%. Since December, the Central Bank has now cut rates by 3.5%, from a high of 12%. [As an aside, the SARB uses a repo rate to conduct policy, as opposed to a discount rate. In theory, a repo rate is slightly unique in that it reflects the rate at which the Central Bank will repurchase government securities from commercial banks. The Federal Funds Rate, in contrast, "is the interest rate at which private depository institutions (mostly banks) lend balances (federal funds) at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions." In practice, both rates function as modulators of liquidity in the financial system.]
“The outlook for domestic economic growth remains subdued, with no indications of a quick recovery,” offered the SARB as a rationale for the rate cuts. Activity in manufacturing and mining, two of the cornerstones of the South African economy, have plummeted since the inception of the credit crisis, along with exports and retail sales. As a result, “Central bank Governor Tito Mboweni said April 7 he would ‘not be surprised‘ if the nation’s economy shrank for a second consecutive quarter in the three months through March, following a 1.8 percent contraction in the fourth quarter.” Meanwhile, South Africa’s producer price index (PPI) has declined for seven consecutive months. Coupled with a moderation in food and energy prices, inflation is no longer perceived as a serious problem.
The South African Rand actually rose on the news of the rate cut, as part of a trend that has seen the currency rise nearly 40% since touching a low of 11.7 Rand/Dollar in October. In April alone, “South Africa’s rand, the laggard of 27 major world and emerging-market currencies last year, rallied 12 percent against the dollar.” This reversal of fortune is due largely to the recovery of risk appetite and consequent return of investors to the carry trade.
South Africa is especially poised to benefit from this trend for a couple reasons. Primarily, the Rand’s advantage lies in in interest rate differentials. Even if the SARB hews to economists’ predictions and cuts its repo rate by another 100 basis points, the differential will still be tremendous, as virtually every industrialized country has lowered rates close to zero. In addition, South Africa is perceived as a relatively safe place to invest, especially relative to interest rate levels. According to one trader, “We’re seeing a re-assessment of the rand’s relative value because of the fact that South Africa’s economy and financial system are relatively more sound than is the case in many other countries.”
As Bloomberg News summarized, you can’t stand in front of a freight train: “Emerging-market stocks are poised for their best month in 20 years as evidence the global recession is easing spurs investor demand for higher-yielding assets.”
In the end, you can’t fool the markets and carry traders ignore fundamentals at their peril. The recent election of Jacob Zuma as South African Prime Minister “hardly adds to confidence in the South African economy.” In addition, South Africa continues to maintain a sizable current account imbalance, “at 7.4 percent of gross domestic product last year.” Despite declines in February and March, the deficit touched a “record 17.380 billion rand deficit in January” and the markets are “expecting large deficits to persist this year as exports come under pressure.”
Swiss National Bank Renews Threat of Intervention
When the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced oln March 12 that it would intervene in forex markets for the first time since 1994, the Franc immediately plummeted up to 5% against select currencies. Since then, the currency has largely clawed back some of its losses, prompting talk of round two: “Speculation about an imminent intervention in the foreign-exchange markets was rife…after the euro fell to CHF1.5031, the lowest level seen since March 12 when the SNB began selling Swiss francs against euros.”
It was unclear whether the Central Bank had chosen a magic threshold, such that a rise by the Franc above which would trigger a sale of Francs in the open market. Earlier in the week, one analyst asserted, “With the euro/franc exchange rate almost at pre-intervention levels - the euro jumped to a level above CHF1.52 after the SNB intervention in March from CHF1.4843 before the announcement - the stage is set for the SNB to either put up or shut up.”
Sure enough, both the Chairman of the SNB as well as a board member both announced yesterday that the campaign to hold down the the Franc is still in effect, and will soon enter a new phase. Thus far, the Bank has relied on various forms of quantitative easing to deflate its currency, both through direct currency transactions and purchases of bonds. The goal of such quantitative easing is only proximately to deflate the Franc; the ultimate goal is to ward off deflation. Given that the Bank had already lowered its benchmark interest rate close to zero, manipulating its currency was/is one of its few remaining options. “As long as the environment does not improve and as long as deflation risks are visible in our monetary policy concept, we will stick to this insurance strategy resolutely,” said Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth.
As the economic recession takes hold, the Swiss economy is forecast to contract 3% in 2009, but to grow in 2010. Consumer sentiment has fallen to the lowest level since 2003. Inflation, meanwhile is projected at -0.5%; deflation, in other words. Still, Switzerland maintains that its motivation is not to boost the economy, but only to increase monetary stability. National Bank governing board member Thomas Jordan “reiterated the interventions have nothing to do with a beggar-thy-neighbor policy, a strategy to weaken a country’s currency to improve the situation for domestic exporters.”
Given that forex intervention is usually doomed to failure, the SNB must rely on a combination of luck and improved fundamentals to keep the Franc down. Thus, when the next round of intervention was announced yesterday, the Franc fell by a modest .75% against the Euro, as investors largely shrugged of the news. Fortunately, the initial pledge to intervene coincided with a pickup in investor sentiment, and decline in risk aversion. This has reduced demand for the Swiss Franc, which had previously been bid up as a so-called “safe haven” currency. As long as the stock market rally continues, investors will stick to higher-yielding currencies and the Franc should be “safe.”
Inflation or Stimulus: An In-depth Look At the Fed’s Response to the Credit Crisis
These days, The Federal Reserve Bank seems to have very few supporters. A recent poll showed that “Twenty-six percent of Americans said they were ‘a lot less’ confident in the Fed…now than five years ago.” Some people think the Fed is doing too much in responding to the economic downturn, others accuse it of doing too little, and everyone agrees the Fed is culpable for lax regulatory efforts under Alan Greenspan. One of the biggest criticisms being levied at the Fed is that its current policies are sure to generate massive inflation in the medium-term, as a result of the massive liquidity being pumped into the financial system now. In this post, I will attempt to provide some clarity on this aspect.
Sure enough, the US monetary base (represented by M1) has exploded since the inception of the credit crisis, rising more than 15% to more than $1.5 Trillion. Plus, given that there is a slight lag in the release of data, these figures don’t necessarily include the effects of the Fed’s expansion in its quantitative easing program, announced on March 18. One commentator explains that, “Of all the Fed’s moves, this ‘quantitative easing’ gets money into the economy the fastest — basically by cranking the handle of the printing press and flooding the market with dollars (in reality, with additional bank credit). Since these dollars are not going into home building, coal-fired electric plants or auto factories, they end up in the stock market.” In the short-term, then, QE has probably contributed only to asset-price inflation, rather than the more serious consumer price inflation.
What about the charge that the Fed is dangerously reaching its tentacles into every corner of the financial markets? As you can see from the chart below, there is certainly a huge degree of truth to this claim. Since January 2008, the Fed has “diversified” its portfolio away from relatively benign Treasury securities, into at least 20 different types of securities and loans. In the process, its balance sheet exploded from approximately $800 Billion to $2.2 Trillion, and could expand further as the next phase of quantitative easing is implemented.
This portfolio’s makeup is indeed becoming increasingly risky. For example, “The Federal Reserve took on more than $74 billion in subprime mortgages, depreciating commercial leases and other assets after Bear Stearns Cos. and American International Group Inc. collapsed.” Despite writing down almost $10 Billion from this portion alone, however, the Fed continues to turn consistent profits. “Last year the central bank reported a whopping $43 billion in operating income. That was more or less the same level as in 2007, but meanwhile short-term interest rates had plummeted, ending the year near zero.” The assertions of conspiracy theorists, notwithstanding, the majority of this profit was transferred to the US Treasury.
[Chart courtesy of The Economist].
Fortunately, most of the (non-esoteric) securities are highly liquid, and can theoretically be sold to investors if and when it becomes appropriate to do so. “The Fed, for example, is required by law to end some when the need is no longer urgent. It charges a penalty for some programmes so that borrowers will return to private markets once these have healed.” The Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) and Term Auction Facility (TAF) programs, which together account for over $650 Billion of the Fed’s portfolio, moreover, can be quickly undone. “The maturity of the outstanding [TAF] loans is 84 days at a maximum, ” while CPPF “deals in short-term money market instruments and can also be phased out, if desired, in a short period of time.”
The $400 Billion in swap lines, on the other hand, are slightly more problematic, both because of the longer time frame and because foreign banks “are now heavily dependent on the Fed for dollars.” Then there is the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), which is not yet operational. While this program is also designed to be temporary, “the multi-year maturities of the loans and the potential size of the program—up to $1 trillion—make the impact on the monetary base more persistent than for some of the other liquidity programs.”
In short, inflation isn’t yet on the radar screen, as economists and bankers must first combat disinflation, and perhaps even deflation. Of course, there is always the (very serious) risk that the Fed either won’t be able to, or simply won’t be diligent enough in removing this cash from the money supply when the time comes. There is also a moral hazard component of the Fed’s QE, whereby “governments could come to rely on such purchases to finance budget deficits.” In my opinion, this kind of scenario would be much more likely to engender inflation, but it would be primarily the fault of the government (as opposed to the Fed), and hence beyond the scope of this post.
Central Bank Mulls Intervention to Hold Down Singapore Dollar
Now, with a global stock market rally underway and a modest economic recovery taking shape on the horizon, the Singapore Dollar has quickly erased almost half of its slide. The Central Bank naturally, is alarmed, and is threatening to intervene. While the MAS, itself, has thus far denied such a possibility, insiders suggested that “The Monetary Authority of Singapore will buy the U.S. dollar “‘f it falls below S$1.4700, around S$1.4690…’ [which] roughly equates with the strong end of the undisclosed trade-weighted band that the MAS uses to guide the Singapore currency.” Curiously enough, the Singapore Dollar beat a retreat this week, after rising all the way to $1.45.
The Singapore Dollar is generally considered a bellweather for the currencies of neighboring countries. Singapore is seen as having a model economic policy, and the Singapore Dollar is somewhat immune from the shocks that affect other currencies because its fluctuation is controlled via a loose band by the city-state’s Monetary Authority. The exchange rate is basically used in lieu of conventional monetary policy ( i.e. adjusting interest rates), although market supply/demand plays a significant role. You can think of the MAS as performing a sort of smoothing function.
In this way, the MAS is acting similarly to the Swiss National Bank, which professes to manipulate its exchange rate in order to prevent deflation- not to increase the competitiveness of exporters. According to a top MAS official, “We keep our monetary policy [based] on the medium-term inflation outlook and taking into account growth prospects. We don’t use the currency for competitiveness because it is not sustainable to align currencies just for competitiveness.” This is somewhat plausible as the MAS intervened similarly during the last downturn, in order to forestall a systemic drop in prices.
As always, the line between maintaining price stability and increasing demand is thin, since the latter is in fact used to bring about the former. This is especially true with Singapore, whose economy is largely dependent on exports to drive growth, and hence has been hit especially hard by the downturn. “In the first quarter of 2009, calculated on an annualized basis, Singapore’s economy contracted at a record rate of 11.5 percent from a year earlier, and 19.7 percent from the previous quarter.” [See Chart] As a powerful symbol of just how bad things are, the New York Times recently reported that over 700 cargo ships are docked near and around Singapore, idling as a result of slackened trade. Maybe the MAS noticed…
While the Singapore Dollar hasn’t been punished to the same extent as its counterparts, the currency was nonetheless dealt a strong blow by the credit crisis, falling 20% in a matter of months, after peaking in 2008. For its part, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)- which functions as the Central Bank- couldn’t have been happier. The currency had fallen just enough to almost completely offset its rise during the leadup to the crisis.
NZD, AUD Down in 2009?
While the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Kiwi technically started 2009 in the black, most analysts believe that both currencies will continue their record declines that began in 2008. All economic indicators continue to point downward, due to the adverse conditions created by the worldwide recession. The economies of Australia and New Zealand are extremely dependent on exports of raw materials and dairy products, respectively. Unfortunately, due to a contraction in demand and a decline in speculation, the prices for both types of commodities appears unlikely to erase even a fraction of the losses suffered last year. The death blow into the heart of both currencies will likely be delivered by their respective Central Banks, which are expected to make additional interest rate cuts. This will further erode the rate differential with the US/Japan, that previously signaled the currencies as attractive investments. Bloomberg News reports:
The average forecast is for the currency [AUD] to reach a low of 62 cents in the first quarter before recovering to 66 cents by the end of 2009. New Zealand’s dollar…will bottom at 52 U.S. cents in the second quarter and recover to 55 cents by the end of the year…
Swiss Franc in Spotlight
The Swiss Franc is in the same boat as the US Dollar and Japanese Yen, benefiting from an increase in risk aversion and an unwinding of carry trade positions. In other words, the currency rising on the back of the sound monetary policy of the National Bank of Switzerland, with its low rate of inflation and proportionately low interest rate. Despite the fact that the Swiss economy is poised to contract in 2009, its economy is in better shape than its rivals, and its current account balance is still in surplus. As a result, the consensus among analysts is that investors will continue to flock to the Franc, as Switzerland is sill perceived as a relatively low-risk place to invest. Especially compared to the Euro, which has risen against the Dollar of late, the Swiss Franc remains undervalued. Bloomberg News reports:
Investors are drawn to the franc in times of international tension and economic upheaval because of the country’s history of neutrality and political stability.
Australian Dollar Rises Despite Unwinding of Carry Trade
When two weeks ago the Royal Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates, one would have expected the Australian Dollar to suffer proportionately. Instead, the currency continued its steady upward rise, and touched a six-month high, before falling back slightly. One surprised analyst lamented, “These types of inconsistencies can make trading forex difficult or down right frustrating at times.”
The interest rate cut marked the sixth since September, since which point the RBA has trimmed its benchmark lending rate by 425 basis points, leaving it at 3%. [See chart below courtesy of "The Fundamental Analyst."] Traders have reacted to the successive declines in yield and simultaneous pickup in risk aversion by unwinding carry trades, many of which had been long the Australian Dollar. The massive sell-off that ensued left the Aussie a long way below the level of parity with the USD, which only last year many analysts had viewed as inevitable.
The most recent rate cut, in contrast, was greeted positively by traders, perhaps because they were expecting a larger (50 basis point) rate cut, but more likely because their priorities had changed. A pickup in risk aversion in recent weeks has definitely reinvigorated interest in comparatively risky currencies such as the Australian Dollar. Overall, the markets remain risk-averse, and investors are increasingly making bets in accordance with economic fundamentals, rather than yield levels. ” ‘The focus will remain on the global backdrop…Risk appetite is still fragile and the market is increasingly realizing that the recent recovery was excessive.’ ”
In the case of the Australian Dollar, traders were heartened by the RBA’s decision to lower interest rates to a 49-year low since it reflected the Bank’s commitment to dealing with the economic crisis. But at this point, the Australian economy is still in poor shape. “Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said yesterday for the first time that a recession in Australia is inevitable amid a slump in global growth that is eroding demand for natural resources from the world’s biggest shipper of coal and iron ore.”
Meanwhile, “The global economic downturn has pushed Australia’s economy into its first recession since 1991, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glen Stevens said.” According to the minutes from the RBA’s last meeting, “Conditions in the labor market continued to soften” and “Further falls in employment and rises in unemployment were expected.” These observations should be viewed in the context of a 5.7% unemployment rate.
The near-term prognosis for the Australian economy remains quite poor, regardless of whether a recovery materializes in 2010, as forecast by economists. Accordingly, analysts expect the RBA to lower its benchmark interest rate further, probably to 2.25% or 2.5%; there is a “bias toward further modest rate cuts, although we continue to think that the RBA may well pause for a few months to assess the impact of the current round of fiscal stimulus,” offered one forecaster.
Given the lull in market activity, some commentators have turned to technical analysis. “Westpac Currency strategist Robert Rennie said their own risk measurement models are clearly flagging a bumpy period ahead for high yielding currencies. ‘Our proprietary models are…clearly telling us to watch risk sentiment and data much more closely than we have over the past six weeks.’ ” In short, traders should not become complacent as result of the Aussie’s recent rally, and should continue to monitor economic data for signs of progress and/or hiccups on the road to recovery.
Australian, New Zealand Currencies Benefit from Risk Aversion
Against each other, the New Zealand Kiwi and Australian Dollar have traded in a pretty tight range for the last year (except for a “blip” in the fall of 2008). This makes sense, as both currencies rise and fall in accordance with exports and interest rates.
Against other currencies, meanwhile, both have torn upwards in the last couple months. Despite steep interest rate cuts, both currencies have maintained their interest rate advantages against other industrialized currencies. This has not gone unnoticed, and the return of the carry trade has been kind. “The current improvement in sentiment is providing an underpinning of support and while that remains the case - and that may be until midyear - the New Zealand dollar is going to remain well-supported,” said one economist.
The correlation between the New Zealand Kiwi, specifically, with the US stock market has become remarkably cut-and-dried of late, which you can see from the chart below. For carry traders, therefore, it probably makes more sense to follow stock market commentary than to track New Zealand economic data. The same economist, for example, warned “that the equities rally, which has seen the broad U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 index climb 36% from its March low after rising another 3.4% Monday to its highest since Jan. 8, may be dissipating.”
Forex Price Movement - Is Chaotic and Unpredictable But You Can Make Money
Don't let anyone tell you that can predict Forex price movement with scientific accuracy, it's a lie. Prices don't move science but you can make money, here's how...
The reason Forex prices are not predictable is obvious, humans decide the price of any currency and you can't predict what they will do with certainty.
There is a big industry selling Forex robots and gurus selling get rich quick systems, telling you that you can predict prices in advance but common sense tells you this cannot be true - why? Because if you could predict price, everyone would know the price in advance and there would be no market. Prices move because you can't predict them, NOT because you can.
You can make money though!
To make profits you have to calculate and trade the odds successfully.
While you cannot predict human nature with certainty, it is constant and never changes. The emotions of greed and fear are always present and these emotions are reflected in high odds, chart patterns that are tradable for profit.
When you trade Forex, you need to trade like a good poker player, who folds or passes by hands that have low odds and then bets when the odds are in their favour. If you do this and have sound money management, you can make a lot of money.
We all want to be perfect and pick market tops and bottoms in advance but it's simply not possible.
To win at Forex, you need to trade the reality of price change only. Prediction is simply hoping or guessing and you will find your predictions (if you try them) are as accurate as your horoscope.
The best Way to Trade is:
Look at a Forex chart and you will see long trends that last for many weeks or months.
Most of these big trends start and continue from new chart highs or lows. You should therefore trade breaks of important support and resistance levels and follow them, as chances are a big trend will develop. You're NOT predicting, you're trading the reality of price change and increasing your odds of success.
Most traders can't trade breakouts because they think they have missed the start of the move and wait for a pullback to get in. It doesn't come and the trader misses the move.
To build a breakout trading system is easy and will always have the opportunity make money, as markets will always trend.
Simple systems work best in Forex trading and we will show you how to put together a simple, long term, forex trading breakout system, in part 2 of this article series.
Trading the odds and trading long term, is the way to make money and you don't need to predict anything!
Online Forex Trading - These Two Simple Equations Can Lead You to Huge Gains
Enclosed you will find two equations which most traders don't understand and that's why most traders lose however if you understand them and incorporate them in your Forex trading strategy you could be on the road to huge gains...
Let's first of all start with the equation which relates to how and why markets really move and it's this:
Supply and Demand Fundamentals + Human Perception of them = Price
Simple?
Yes it is but most traders fail to see its signifcance which is:
It's not the facts that are important, its how humans perceive them that is; always remember humans are creatures of emotion and don't conform to some scientific theory which means all the commonly perceived views below about trading Forex are wrong:
- You can predict market movements in advance
- You can trade breaking news and the facts
- Markets move to some mathematical theory
- You can make money from short term moves i.e. scalping or day trading.
Its clear that markets move to probabilities not certainties. So using complex theories or mathematical theories is doomed to failure; its also impossible to work out what millions upon millions of traders will do within a day, as all short term moves are random and breaking news stories and facts cannot be traded, as the facts by themselves not important, its how there perceived that determines what happens next.
So how do you trade online Forex markets and win?
In an odds based market, simple systems works best and you should simply trade the reality of price change on a Forex Chart. Most traders make Forex trading more complicated than it really is. Having a successful trading system though is not enough next, you now need to understand another simple equation to succeed.
A Simple Robust Forex Trading System + Disciplined Execution = Forex Profits
The key to winning long term at Forex is disciplined execution of a system. If you can't execute your trading system signals with discipline, you have no system and don't be deceived, trading with discipline is very hard.
The reason discipline is so hard is you are going to have losing periods ( all traders have them) and you are going to have to keep going while the market takes your money and wrong foots you and makes you feel a fool. When this is happening, you need to keep your losses small and stay on course until you hit a home run and this is hard.
Most traders think they will never lose and believe the rubbish that vendors of "sure fire" systems tell them which is - losing periods don't occur or are very short.
When they hit a period of losses, they simply cannot cope with them and throw in the towel. if you understand that you have to lose to win and can trade with discipline, you can enjoy currency trading success.
Most traders don't really understand how markets really move and lack the mindset to win. Above we have shown you what it takes to win at online Forex trading and the rest is now up to you - good luck!
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